SimPPL
All issuesFebruary 2026
SimPPL Newsletter

February 2026, Wildebeest conservation, ICC vs. Duterte, and Truth Warrants at IC2S2

Two Arbiter investigations — the wildebeest conservation debate in Kenya and the ICC vs. Duterte digital legal discourse — plus our paired SSRN/IC2S2 papers on market-design interventions for safer agentic AI.

ResearchArbiter

When a single tweet about wildebeest migration racks up 841,564 engagements, it's clear that conservation has entered the mainstream. Our latest Arbiter analysis reveals how Twitter has become the frontline for Kenya's wildlife protection debate. Conservation strategies are working. Posts celebrating "Increased Wildebeest Populations" and "Community Involvement" dominate the narrative, with eco-activists like ECOWARRIORSS and Kaikainaipaa driving the conversation. High friction around land use policies. "Conservationists vs. Developers" narratives reveal a zero-sum debate with no middle ground, and limited input from independent analysts. Climate change and urban encroachment are the biggest fears. Posts about "Scarce Water Resources" and "Migration Route Disruption" are amplifying urgency among environmental groups. While conservation efforts are celebrated, the policy framework to sustain them remains contentious and underrepresented in public discourse.

The ICC's case against Rodrigo Duterte is one of the most-watched legal dramas in Southeast Asia. Our latest Arbiter analysis reveals how different platforms are shaping radically different narratives. YouTube as the Courtroom (65% Support ICC): In-depth legal breakdowns and ICC procedural updates dominate. 60% of commenters express dissatisfaction with Duterte's human rights record, making YouTube the hub for critical, informed discourse. Bluesky as the Skeptic (70% Question Fairness): Users here aren't just critiquing Duterte — they are questioning the entire judicial process. "Kangaroo Court" narratives dominate, reflecting distrust in international legal mechanisms. Twitter as the Battlefield (55% Negative): The most divided platform. While some defend Duterte's leadership legacy, the majority criticize his administration. Real-time updates and Senate resolutions drive the conversation. The ICC's actions are not just legal; they are shaping a new narrative of how international law can influence national politics. But the absence of legal expert voices leaves room for misinformation.

If you build accountability into the marketplace where agents act, the rest of the system gets safer almost for free. That's the thesis of the SSRN preprint on market-design interventions for safer agentic AI, and the companion IC2S2 paper on interactive marketplace experiments for platform governance.

The companion paper shows that marketplace-style experiments are a better tool for testing moderation policies than offline counterfactuals. We ran the experiments inside Arbiter; the protocol is documented in the appendix.

Reports and links